Affiliation:
1. Center for Technology and Natural Resources, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande 58429900, Brazil
2. Water and Sewage Company of Paraíba (CAGEPA), Campina Grande 58401150, Brazil
Abstract
In the face of urban expansion, ensuring sustainable water consumption is paramount. This study aims to develop a domestic water demand forecast model that considers population heterogeneity and the urban area distribution in a city in the Brazilian Semiarid Region. The methodology comprises three main steps: (1) spatial data collection to identify explanatory variables for a future Land Use and Cover (LULC) model; (2) simulation of LULC data for 2030, 2040, and 2050 using the MOLUSCE plugin; and (3) estimation of domestic water demand based on projected urban area expansion and a linear regression model incorporating demographic indicators of household income, residents per household, total population, and gender. The results demonstrated a consistent LULC simulation, indicating an urban expansion of 4 km2 between 2030 and 2050, with reductions of 0.6 km2 in natural formations and 3.4 km2 in farming areas. Using LULC data, the study predicted a 14.21% increase in domestic water consumption in Campina Grande for 2050 compared to 2010, equivalent to an increase of 2,348,424.96 m3. Furthermore, the spatial analysis draws a spatial profile of water consumption among residents, highlighting the areas with the highest per capita consumption. Thus, this research offers a consistent approach to estimating water demand in regions with limited consumption data, providing valuable insights for decision-makers to consider in urban planning.
Funder
National Council of Scientific and Technological Development—Brazil
Paraíba State Research Foundation
Subject
Pollution,Urban Studies,Waste Management and Disposal,Environmental Science (miscellaneous),Geography, Planning and Development