Investigating the Direct and Spillover Effects of Urbanization on Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China Using Nighttime Light Data

Abstract

Cities are the main emission sources of the CO2 produced by energy use around the globe and have a great impact on the variation of climate. Although the implications of urbanization and socioeconomic elements for carbon emission have been extensively explored, previous studies have mostly focused on developed cities, and there is a lack of research into naturally related elements due to the limited data. At present, remote sensing data provide favorable conditions for the study of large-scale and long-time series. Also, the spillover mechanism of urbanization effects on the discharge of carbon has not been fully studied. Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish the types of influence that various urbanization factors have on emissions of CO2. Firstly, this study quantifies the urban CO2 emissions in China by utilizing nighttime lighting images. Then, the spatio-temporal variations and spatial dependence modes of CO2 emissions are explored for 284 cities in China from 2000–2018. Finally, the study further ascertains that multi-dimensional urbanization, socio-economic and climate variables affect the discharge of carbon using spatial regression models. The results indicate that CO2 emissions have a remarkable positive spatial autocorrelation. Urbanization significantly increases CO2 emissions, of which the land urbanization contribution towards CO2 emissions is the most important in terms of spillover effects. Specifically, the data on urbanization’s direct effects reveal that CO2 emissions will increase 0.066%when the urbanization level of a city rises 1%, while the spillover effect indicates that an 0.492% emissions increase is associated with a 1% rise of bordering cities’ average urbanization level. As for the socio-economic factors, population density suppresses CO2 emissions, while technological levels boost CO2 emissions. The natural control factors effect a remarkable impact on CO2 emissions by adjusting energy consumption. This study can provide evidence for regional joint prevention in urban energy conservation, emission reduction, and climate change mitigation.