Analysis of Climate Variability and Climate Change in Sub-Daily Maximum Intensities: A Case Study in Cartagena, Colombia

Abstract

The present work analyses a time series of maximum intensities for sub-daily durations of 10 min, 20 min, up to 100 min, and their relationship with the maximum rainfall observations in twenty-four hours (P24), the total annual rainfall (PT), and the maximum, average, and minimum temperatures, using the records of the Rafael Núñez Airport station in the city of Cartagena de Indias, recorded from 1970 to 2015. The series of maximum intensities were obtained from the pluviographic records existing in the station. The analysis seeks to find evidence of climate change and climate variability. The series were tested for homogeneity, stationarity, trend, and periodicity. The degree of cross-correlation and temporal correlation between the different series were determined. Temperature series show homogeneity problems, while no correlation was found between the temperatures and the maximum sub-daily intensities, with the maximum rainfall observations in twenty-four hours and the total annual rainfall. The presence of marked periodicities was found in all the series, with a greater signal in the maximum. No significant trends were found in any of the series. Intensities and maximum rainfall observations in 24 h were found. In general, the series are stationary and do not show trends. Non-homogeneities in the series and the presence of periodicities can lead to an interpretation of non-stationarity and trend.