Enhancing the Performance of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Using Ensemble of Machine Learning Models Applied on Weather Radar Data

Abstract

Flash floods are a major weather-related risk, as they cause more than 5000 fatalities annually, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Quantitative Precipitation Estimation is a method used to approximate the rainfall over locations where direct field observations are not available. It represents one of the most valuable information employed by meteorologists and hydrologists for issuing early warnings concerning flash floods. The current study is in line with the efforts to improve radar-based rainfall estimates through the use of machine learning techniques applied on radar data. With this aim, as a proof of concept, six machine learning models are evaluated to make estimations of the radar-based hourly accumulated rainfall using reflectivity data collected on the lowest radar elevation angles, and we employ a new data model for representing these radar data. The data were collected by a WSR-98D weather radar of the Romanian Meteorological Administration, located in the central region of Romania, during 30 non-consecutive days of the convective seasons, between 2016 and 2021. We obtained encouraging results using a stacked machine learning model. In terms of the Root Mean Squared Error evaluation metric, the results of the proposed stacked regressor are better than the radar estimated accumulated rainfall by about 33% and also outperform the baseline computed using the Z-R relationship by about 13%.