The Spatio-Temporal Development and Influencing Factors of Urban Residential Land Prices in Hebei Province, China

Abstract

Against the backdrop of rapid urbanization and coordinated development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China, urban residential land prices in Hebei Province have experienced significant increases, exacerbating housing pressures on residents. This study aims to elucidate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of urban residential land prices, identify the key influencing factors in Hebei Province of China, and offer insights on macro-control of the land market, optimization of the land supply structure, and guidance on the sustainable development of land and real estate markets in the region. Utilizing land price monitoring data from 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province spanning the past five years, this research employs quantitative methods, such as the Theil index, the standard deviation ellipse, and the geographic detector model, to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics and factors shaping urban residential land prices. The results show that: (1) Urban residential land prices in Hebei Province exhibited an overall upward trend from 2018 to 2022, characterized by pronounced spatial variations, with higher prices predominantly concentrated in the cities along the Shijiazhuang–Baoding–Langfang–Tangshan corridor; (2) The distribution pattern of urban residential land prices generally mirrors that of GDP, indicating a consistent movement of price centers with urban land price escalation; (3) Urban land prices are influenced by multiple factors in combination, where the interactions among these factors outweigh the impact of any single factor. Specifically, the proportion of GDP attributed to the tertiary industry and location conditions emerge as pivotal factors affecting urban residential land prices in Hebei Province. Given these significant spatial disparities, addressing the industrial structure and optimizing urban land resource allocation are critically imperative.