Nonlinear Evolutionary Pattern Recognition of Land Subsidence in the Beijing Plain

Abstract

Beijing is a city on the North China Plain with severe land subsidence. In recent years, Beijing has implemented effective measures to control land subsidence. Since this implementation, the development of time-series land subsidence in Beijing has slowed and has shown nonlinearity. Most previous studies have focused on the linear evolution of land subsidence; the nonlinear evolutionary patterns of land subsidence require further discussion. Therefore, we aimed to identify the evolution of land subsidence in Beijing, based on Envisat ASAR and Radarsat-2 images from 2003 to 2020, using permanent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PS-InSAR) and cubic curve polynomial fitting methods. The dates of the extreme and inflection points were identified from the polynomial coefficients. From 2003 to 2020, the subsidence rate reached 138.55 mm/year, and the area with a subsidence rate > 15 mm/year reached 1688.81 km2. The cubic polynomials fit the time-series deformation well, with R2 ranging from 0.86 to 0.99 and the RMSE ranging from 1.97 to 60.28 mm. Furthermore, the subsidence rate at 96.64% of permanent scatterer (PS) points first increased and then decreased. The subsidence rate at 86.58% of the PS points began to decrease from 2010 to 2015; whereas the subsidence rate at 30.51% of the PS point reached a maximum between 2015 and 2019 and then decreased. The cumulative settlement continued to increase at 69.49% of the PS points. These findings imply that groundwater levels are highly correlated with the temporal evolution of subsidence in areas with pattern D (Vs+-, S+), with increasing and then decelerating rates and increasing amounts. In regions with a thickness of compressible clay layer over 210 m, subsidence follows pattern E (Vs+, S+), with increasing rates and amounts. Fractures such as the Gaoliying and Sunhe fractures significantly influence the spatial distribution of subsidence patterns, showing distinct differences on either side. Near the Global Resort Station, pattern E (Vs+, S+) intensifies in subsidence, potentially due to factors like land use changes and construction activities.