Evaluation of Machine Learning Regression Techniques for Estimating Winter Wheat Biomass Using Biophysical, Biochemical, and UAV Multispectral Data

Abstract

Crop above-ground biomass (AGB) estimation is a critical practice in precision agriculture (PA) and is vital for monitoring crop health and predicting yields. Accurate AGB estimation allows farmers to take timely actions to maximize yields within a given growth season. The objective of this study is to use unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) multispectral imagery, along with derived vegetation indices (VI), plant height, leaf area index (LAI), and plant nutrient content ratios, to predict the dry AGB (g/m2) of a winter wheat field in southwestern Ontario, Canada. This study assessed the effectiveness of Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) models in predicting dry ABG from 42 variables. The RF models consistently outperformed the SVR models, with the top-performing RF model utilizing 20 selected variables based on their contribution to increasing node purity in the decision trees. This model achieved an R2 of 0.81 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 149.95 g/m2. Notably, the variables in the top-performing model included a combination of MicaSense bands, VIs, nutrient content levels, nutrient content ratios, and plant height. This model significantly outperformed all other RF and SVR models in this study that relied solely on UAV multispectral data or plant leaf nutrient content. The insights gained from this model can enhance the estimation and management of wheat AGB, leading to more effective crop yield predictions and management.