Community-Scale Classification and Governance Policy Implications for Demographic, Economic, and Land-Use Linkages in Mega-Cities

Abstract

Analyzing the spatio-temporal relationship between socio-economics and land-use structure at the micro-scale is crucial for effective spatial governance in large cities. This paper focuses on Beijing, utilizing long time-series remote sensing images and multi-source data spanning 30 years. We employ spatio-temporal clustering based on kilometer grid cells and a community-scale multi-factor aggregation method to categorize the linkages and spatio-temporal matching of population, GDP, land development, and ecological protection at the community level in a problem-oriented approach. Results indicate significant changes in Beijing’s population, GDP, and land use, with a 11.53% increase in land development intensity. We identify significant temporal and spatial disparities between population–GDP dynamics, population–land development trends, and GDP–land development patterns, underscoring the multifaceted challenges inherent in urban governance. Areas characterized by lagging population concentration, sluggish economic growth, rampant land development, and ecological fragility collectively encapsulate notable portions of Beijing’s expansive urban terrain. Mismatches pose governance risks, with medium to high-risk communities comprising 18.08% of community units and high-risk types representing 4.27% in Beijing. These discrepancies pose formidable governance risks, with communities ranging from moderate to high-risk categories, necessitating tailored interventions to address their unique challenges. This systematic exploration of comprehensive governance issues within mega-cities promises to furnish decision-makers with invaluable insights, facilitating nuanced and strategic urban governance approaches tailored to the intricacies of urban dynamics and challenges.