Resilient Electricity Load Forecasting Network with Collective Intelligence Predictor for Smart Cities

Abstract

Accurate electricity forecasting is essential for smart cities to maintain grid stability by allocating resources in advance, ensuring better integration with renewable energies, and lowering operation costs. However, most forecasting models that use machine learning cannot handle the missing values and possess a single point of failure. With rapid technological advancement, smart cities are becoming lucrative targets for cyberattacks to induce packet loss or take down servers offline via distributed denial-of-service attacks, disrupting the forecasting system and inducing missing values in the electricity load data. This paper proposes a collective intelligence predictor, which uses modular three-level forecasting networks to decentralize and strengthen against missing values. Compared to the existing forecasting models, it achieves a coefficient of determination score of 0.98831 with no missing values using the base model in the Level 0 network. As the missing values in the forecasted zone rise to 90% and a single-model forecasting method is no longer effective, it achieves a score of 0.89345 with a meta-model in the Level 1 network to aggregate the results from the base models in Level 0. Finally, as missing values reach 100%, it achieves a score of 0.81445 by reconstructing the forecast from other zones using the meta-model in the Level 2 network.