Research on Path Planning Model Based on Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction in Intelligent Transportation System

Abstract

Vehicle driving path planning is an important information service in intelligent transportation systems. As an important basis for path planning optimization, the travel time prediction method has attracted much attention. However, traffic flow has features of high nonlinearity, time-varying, and uncertainty, which makes it hard for prediction method with single feature to meet the accuracy demand of intelligent transportation system in big data environment. In this paper, the historical vehicle Global Positioning System (GPS) information data is used to establish the traffic prediction model. Firstly, the Clustering in QUEst (CLIQUE)-based clustering algorithm V-CLIQUE is proposed to analyze the historical vehicle GPS data. Secondly, an artificial neural network (ANN)-based prediction model is proposed. Finally, the ANN-based weighted shortest path algorithm, A-Dijkstra, is proposed. We used mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to evaluate the predictive model and compare it with the predicted results of Average and support regression vector (SRV). Experiments show that the improved ANN path planning model we proposed can accurately predict real-time traffic status at the given location. It has less relative error and saves time for users’ travel while saving social resources.