Assessment of Municipal Solid Waste Management Scenarios in Metro Manila Using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning-Integrated Benefit Calculator (LEAP-IBC) System

Abstract

Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and municipal solid wastes (MSWs) have been found to be viable sources of clean energy. This study integrates the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for methane flow rate estimation in the software Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning-Integrated Benefit Calculator (LEAP-IBC) system to estimate and project the methane emissions coming from the waste generated by Metro Manila, disposed in sanitary landfills. It aims to analyze the environmental impacts of the emissions coming from the non-energy sector using the IBC feature of LEAP and by developing two scenarios with 2010 and 2050 as the base and end years: the baseline and methane recovery scenario, where the latter represents the solid waste management undertaken to counter the emissions. Under the baseline, 97.30 million metric tonnes of methane emissions are expected to be produced and are predicted to continuously increase. In the same scenario, the cities of Quezon, Manila, and Caloocan account for the biggest methane emissions. On the other hand, in the methane recovery scenario, the methane emissions are expected to have a decline of 36% from 127.036 to 81.303 million metric tonnes by 2025, 52% from 135.358 to 64.972 million metric tonnes by 2030, and 54% from 150.554 to 69.254 million metric tonnes by 2040. For the 40-year projection of the study under the 100-year global warming potential analysis, a total of 10,249 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent is avoided in the methane recovery compared to the BAU, and a maximum of 0.019 °C temperature increase can also be avoided. Moreover, electricity costs without LFG technology increase from 2.21 trillion to 8.75 trillion, while costs with LFG technology also rise but remain consistently lower, ranging from 2.20 trillion to 8.74 trillion. This consistent reduction in electricity costs underscores the long-term value and importance of adopting LFG technology, even as its relative savings impact diminishes over time. Finally, the fixed effects and random effects panel data regression analysis reinforces and asserts that the solid waste management is really improved by means of the methane recovery technology, leading the methane emissions to decrease.