A New Approach to Quantify Soccer Players’ Readiness through Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that variation in PlayerLoad (PL) could be used to detect fatigue in soccer players. Machine learning techniques (ML) were used to develop a new locomotor efficiency index (LEI) based on the prediction of PL. Sixty-four elite soccer players were monitored during an entire season. GPS systems were employed to collect external load data, which in turn were used to predict PL during training/matches. Random Forest Regression (RF) produced the best performance (mean absolute percentage error = 0.10 ± 0.01) and was included in further analyses. The difference between the PL value predicted by the ML model and the real one was calculated, individualized for each player using a z-score transformation (LEI), and interpreted as a sign of fatigue (negative LEI) or neuromuscular readiness (positive LEI). A linear mixed model was used to analyze how LEI changed according to the period of the season, day of the week, and weekly load. Regarding seasonal variation, the lowest and highest LEI values were recorded at the beginning of the season and in the middle of the season, respectively. On a weekly basis, our results showed lower values on match day − 2, while high weekly training loads were associated with a reduction in LEI.