Exploring Model-Based Decarbonization and Energy Efficiency Scenarios with PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN

Abstract

This study provides a quantitative analysis of future energy–climate developments at the global level using two well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN. The research aims to explore the results of these IAMs and identify avenues for improvement to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study focuses on the effects of varying assumptions for key model drivers, including carbon prices, technology costs, and global energy prices, within the context of stringent decarbonization policies. Diagnostic scenarios are utilized to assess the behavior of the models under varying exogenous assumptions for key drivers, aiming to verify the accuracy and reliability of the models and identify areas for optimization. The findings of this research demonstrate that both PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN exhibit similar responses to carbon pricing, with PROMETHEUS being more sensitive to this parameter than TIAM-ECN. The results highlight the importance of carbon pricing as an effective policy tool to drive decarbonization efforts. Additionally, the study reveals that variations in technology costs and global energy prices significantly impact the outcomes of the models. The identified sensitivities and responses of the IAMs to key model drivers offer guidance for policymakers to refine their policy decisions and develop effective strategies aligned with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. By understanding the behavior of the models under different assumptions, policymakers can make informed decisions to optimize decarbonization pathways and enhance the likelihood of meeting global climate goals.