Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Typical Arid Regions

Abstract

As an important indicator for assessing regional water resources, the study of the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is essential for achieving sustainable water resource utilization. This study focuses on Yulin City, a typical arid region located on the Loess Plateau in northwestern China. By constructing an evaluation index system for regional WRCC and combining an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model with the TOPSIS evaluation model, a comprehensive WRCC evaluation model is established. Additionally, Geodetector is used to explore the main driving factors behind the evolution of regional WRCC. This multidimensional analytical framework aims to deeply analyze the dynamic evolution trends of WRCC and the driving mechanisms of different factors in its spatiotemporal changes. The results indicate that (1) from 2011 to 2020, the overall WRCC of Yulin City showed a trend of positive improvement, with Shenmu, Yuyang, and Fugu areas performing the best, and by 2020, more than half of the counties had achieved Grade 3 or above; (2) the spatial variability of WRCC in Yulin City was more significant than its temporal changes; and (3) in terms of driving mechanisms, the northern six counties gradually shifted from traditional economic-driven factors to ecological and environmental drivers, whereas the southern six counties remained constrained by economic factors. Overall, water resource factors remain the primary driving force for the socio-economic development and environmental sustainability of the entire Yulin City. The study provides valuable information for water resource allocation and differentiated management in arid regions.