Evaluation and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Security Based on a CA-Markov Model in Overlapped Area of Crop and Coal Production

Abstract

Overlapped areas of crop and coal production are responsible for national food security and mineral resource supply. However, long-term coal mining and urban and rural construction have continuously impacted the structure and functions of the original agricultural landscape ecosystem in the area and brought serious ecological security problems. On the basis of the results of remote sensing image classification of the Zhaogu mining area, this study explores the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the landscape pattern and the evolution of ecological security and predicts the landscape ecological security status in 2029. Research results show that the evolution of the landscape pattern in the study area manifests obvious stage characteristics: from 2004 to 2014, the landscape pattern developed in the direction of fragmentation, irregularity, heterogeneity, and low connectivity; after 2014, the landscape pattern showed continuity, regularization, and high connectivity trends. By comparing the landscape ecological security of the study area from 2004 to 2019, a temporal change characteristic of first deteriorating and then gradually improving can be observed. By analyzing the changes in the distribution of the security status in the study area on a spatial scale, it can be found that the proportion of unsafe areas is significantly reduced in 2019 due to the influence of land remediation and reclamation. By constructing a CA-Markov prediction model with both spatial and quantitative advantages, the prediction results show that the degree of landscape fragmentation in the study area will be reduced, and the connectivity will be enhanced between 2019 and 2029. The shape of landscape patches tends to be regular, and the landscape heterogeneity will be enhanced. Overall, the landscape ecological security situation will continue to improve. The results could provide reference for ecological protection and related land reclamation planning of the mine area.