Trends and Age–Period–Cohort Effect on the Incidence of Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer (20–44 Years) from 1990 to 2021 in the United States

Abstract

The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals under 50 years old is rapidly increasing in the United States. This study aims to evaluate EO-CRC incidence rates using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, providing insights into trends from 1990 to 2021. We employed an age–period–cohort (APC) model analysis to estimate the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on EO-CRC incidence. Our findings indicate that the number of EO-CRC cases rose from 6256 (95% UI: 6059–6456) in 1990 to 9311 (95% UI: 8859–9744) in 2021, a 49% increase from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 population increased by 34% during this period. The net drift in females (0.22%, 95% CI: 0.20–0.24) was slightly higher than in males (0.21%, 95% CI: 0.19–0.23) (p = 0.45). The APC analysis revealed that being over 25 years old, the period from 2005–2021, and being born after 1983 negatively impacted EO-CRC incidence rates, with a sharp rise after 2000 and a reduction among females from 2017 to 2021. Our study highlights the need for targeted prevention strategies and further research to understand these trends.