Construction of Brain Metastasis Prediction Model and Optimization of Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation Selection for Limited-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Abstract

Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI), as an essential part of the treatment of limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC), inevitably leads to neurotoxicity. This study aimed to construct a brain metastasis prediction model and identify low-risk patients to avoid PCI; 236 patients with LS-SCLC were retrospectively analyzed and divided into PCI (63 cases) and non-PCI groups (173 cases). The nomogram was developed based on variables determined by univariate and multivariate analyses in the non-PCI group. According to the cutoff nomogram score, all patients were divided into high- and low-risk cohorts. A log-rank test was used to compare the incidence of brain metastasis between patients with and without PCI in the low-risk and high-risk groups, respectively. The nomogram included five variables: chemotherapy cycles (ChT cycles), time to radiotherapy (RT), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), pro-gastrin-releasing peptide precursor (ProGRP), and lymphocytes–monocytes ratio (LMR). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.763 and 0.782 at 1 year, and 0.759 and 0.732 at 2 years in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Based on the nomogram, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups with a cutoff value of 165. In the high-risk cohort, the incidence of brain metastasis in the non-PCI group was significantly higher than in the PCI group (p < 0.001), but there was no difference in the low-risk cohort (p = 0.160). Propensity score-matching (PSM) analysis showed similar results; the proposed nomogram showed reliable performance in assessing the individualized brain metastasis risk and has the potential to become a clinical tool to individualize PCI treatment for LS-SCLC.