Stochastic Optimization Model of Capacity Configuration for Integrated Energy Production System Considering Source-Load Uncertainty

Abstract

China’s carbon neutrality strategy has expedited a transition towards greener and lower-carbon integrated energy systems. Faced with the problem that the central position of thermal power cannot be transformed quickly, utilizing traditional thermal power units in a low-carbon and efficient manner is the premise to guarantee green energy development. This study focuses on the integrated energy production system (IEPS) and a stochastic optimization model for capacity configuration that integrates carbon capture storage and power-to-gas while considering source-load uncertainty. Firstly, carbon capture storage and power-to-gas technologies are introduced, and the architecture and models of the IEPS are established. The carbon and hydrogen storage equipment configuration enhances the system’s flexibility. Also, source-load uncertainty is considered, and a deterministic transformation is applied using the simultaneous backward reduction algorithm combined with K-means clustering. The paper simulates the optimal capacity configuration of the IEPS in a park energy system in Suzhou, China. Furthermore, the research performs a sensitivity analysis on coal, natural gas, and carbon tax prices. Case studies verified that IEPS can realize the recycling of electricity, gas, hydrogen, and carbon, with remarkable characteristics of low-carbon, flexibility, and economical. Stochastic optimized capacity allocation results considering source-load uncertainty are more realistic. Sensitivity intervals for energy prices can reference pricing mechanisms in energy markets. This study can provide ideas for the transition of China’s energy structure and offer directions to the low-carbon sustainable development of the energy system.