Consequence Assessment Model for Gasoline Transport: Belgrade Case Study Based on Multi-Agent Simulation

Abstract

The transport of dangerous goods by road represents a specific problem, considering that these vehicles can have great negative effects on people and the environment in the event of an accident. In the last few decades, various methods have been defined for risk management in this area. Most of these methods are based on reducing the probability and the consequences of an accident. In a large number of cases, the probability of the occurrence is in much greater focus than the consequences. To fill this gap, we created a new model for assessing the consequences on the population in the event of a fire during gasoline transportation. The model is based on the hypothesis that hazard intensity is directly proportional to the intensity of the heat generated by the fire and inversely proportional to the distance from the accident. The model was implemented through a Belgrade case study with multi-agent simulation. The results of the paper show that there is a 43% probability that there would be between 11 and 28 casualties in the observed location in the event of an accident. This confirms the initial hypothesis and shows that the model can be successfully used to assess the consequences.