Affiliation:
1. Arizona State University
Abstract
A computer simulation model of theory building was discussed within the framework of Quincy Wright's data on occurrences of wars within the 15–20th century time interval and time series of discoveries of the atomic elements of matter. Several types of theories of societal change as derived from generalizations of longitudinal data were postulated in terms of their underlying geometric forms. The main parameter of the model was the length of the historical period used for abstraction from the observed data. A relationship between the size of this parameter and the geometric form of theories of historical change was observed. Implications of this finding were discussed with respect to models of open systems and both active and fringe periods of closed systems.
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Cited by
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