Hindsight and Confirmation Biases in an Exercise in Telepathy

Abstract

Belief in the paranormal or claims of paranormal experiences may be, at least in part, associated with systematic cognitive biases. 48 undergraduate college students engaged in an exercise in telepathy in which the color of cards was ‘sent’ to them by the experimenter under two conditions. In a Hindsight-possible condition, participants recorded whether their choice was correct following the revelation of the color. In the Control condition participants committed to a particular response by writing it down before receiving feedback, thus eliminating ability to alter retrospectively what ‘was known all along’. Consistent with a hindsight bias, participants performed significantly better under the Hindsight-possible condition. Moreover, a statistically significant correlation was found between paranormal belief assessed on Tobacyk's 1988 Revised Paranormal Belief Scale in the Hindsight-possible but not in the Control condition, suggesting a confirmation bias. Results are discussed in terms of interactions between hindsight and confirmation biases and how they might relate to paranormal beliefs.