Energy transition through bioelectricity in Pakistan: Implications for limiting global mean temperature below 1.5°C

Abstract

AbstractClimate change threats demand unprecedented economic shifts around the world, including a fundamental transformation of the global energy system. An energy transition is underway in most regions, predominantly in the power sector. This research depicts the energy transition pathway for achieving 100% renewable energy systems through bioenergy in Pakistan. The growth rate of 20%, 30%, and 40% in biomass projects were considered for the study period 2023 to 2053 using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. It presents a technology‐rich, multi‐sectoral and cost‐optimal energy transition pathway for limiting global mean temperature below 1.5°C. The results revealed that Pakistan's electricity generation undergoes a rapidly evolving transition from predominantly fossil fuels 62.1% in 2023 to 81.3% renewables in 2053, and entirely zero CO2 emissions by 2060. Hydro source is costly, wind and solar sources are seasonal so biomass emerges as the major electricity supply source in a cost optimal energy transition of Pakistan. Share of biomass is increasing from a mere 0.81% in 2023 to around 9.44% by 2053 under the 20% growth rate, which then increase to 39.67% by 2053 under the 30% growth rate and further increases to 78.33% by 2053 under the 40% growth rate. Pakistan contributes 0.8% of the global carbon footprint, but we are among the 10 most climate‐stressed countries on the planet in 2023 so this study helps to reduce cumulative CO2 emissions from 151.63 million metric tons to 8.90 million metric tons from 2023 to 2053 across the power, heat, transport, and desalination sectors.