Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

Author:

Bakhtiyorov Zulfiyor123ORCID,Opała‐Owczarek Magdalena4,Chen Feng15ORCID,Wang Shijie1,Shang Huaming5,Owczarek Piotr6,Khan Adam7

Affiliation:

1. Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco‐Security Institute of International Rivers and Eco‐Security, Yunnan University Kunming China

2. Khujand Science Center National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan Khujand Tajikistan

3. Centre for Innovative Development of Science and New Technologies National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan Dushanbe Tajikistan

4. Institute of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice Sosnowiec Poland

5. Key Laboratory of Tree‐ring Physical and Chemical Research Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration Urumqi China

6. Institute of Geography and Regional Development, University of Wroclaw Wrocław Poland

7. Department of Biological Science University of Lakki Marwat Lakki Marwat Pakistan

Abstract

AbstractLong‐term hydroclimate change can provide reliable reference for water resources management in Central Asia. However, only a few palaeohydrological records exist in Tajikistan. To obtain a long‐term perspective on hydrological changes in Tajikistan, we developed, for the first time, a streamflow reconstruction from September of the previous year to June of the current one in the Kafirnigan River basin, based on Juniperus semiglobosa tree‐ring width indices from the Iskanderkul area in northern Tajikistan. The streamflow reconstruction explains 40% of the actual streamflow variance during the period 1939–1993. Spatial correlation analyses with gridded precipitation data indicate that our streamflow reconstruction contains a strong regional hydroclimatic signal for southern Central Asia. The high and low intervals of our streamflow reconstruction are closely related to the interdecadal variations of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our reconstructed streamflow is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and northern Indian Ocean, indicate the existence of remarkable 11‐, 5.6–5.7‐, 4.3‐, 2.6‐, 2.3‐ and 2.0‐year cycles, and suggest a relationship between southern Central Asian streamflow variations and ENSO activity.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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