Intentions and abilities to migrate from Africa to Europe

Abstract

AbstractWhile migration from Africa to Europe is increasing, aspiring migrants from Africa are still less likely than those from other continents to migrate to their preferred destinations. An analysis of the reasons for this is needed. This paper investigates how individual‐level traits and country income levels influence intentions and abilities to migrate from Africa to Europe, while also exploring regional differences. It does so through an approach investigating the influence of both micro‐level factors and macro‐level factors, as well as their interactions. It first analyses migration intentions in 47 African countries in the Years 2010–2015, by investigating plans to migrate to Europe. It then analyses abilities to migrate from these countries to Europe in the Years 2011–2016, by exploring the proxy of the conversion of migration plans into flows. The analysis is based on Gallup World Poll, Eurostat, Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, Frontex, and World Bank data and estimates. The paper finds that 1.4% of individuals in the African countries considered were planning to migrate to Europe in the Years 2010–2015, and an estimated 5.8% of these was able to migrate in 2011–2016. Migration intentions and abilities are shaped by a complex interplay of micro‐ and macro‐level factors. While some individual‐level traits have similar effects on migration intentions across country income levels, others increase the likelihood of planning to migrate to a stronger extent in countries of origin with higher income levels. Abilities to convert migration plans into actual migration, and to do so through regular channels, increase with higher country income levels. The influence of individual‐level traits and country income levels on migration intentions and abilities appears to vary across regions. Findings confirm the relevance of approaches investigating migration intentions and abilities by assessing both micro‐ and macro‐level factors, as well as their interactions. A more nuanced understanding of these interactions is crucial to inform migration policies that recognise the different needs and realities of aspiring migrants.