The (complex) effect of internet voting on turnout: Theoretical and methodological considerations

Abstract

AbstractThe adoption of remote internet voting can be a rather complex reform. In theory and praxis, geographical units can either decide to adopt or not to adopt i‐voting. Those that adopt it can differ in the mode of i‐voting adoption (i.e., internet‐only voting, or also in‐person voting), and the timing of adoption (i.e., some geographical units might adopt it earlier than others). How does the decision to adopt internet voting, the mode of adoption and the timing of adoption influence turnout? Using data spanning the municipal elections in Ontario, Canada from 2000 to 2018, we try to answer these research questions. Generally, we find that allowing internet voting, regardless of the availability of in‐person voting, does not influence turnout over the long term. However, we do find a temporal pattern, in that some of the most participatory municipalities adopted internet voting the earliest. We also detect a novelty effect; a sizable increase in turnout during the first ever election in which internet voting was introduced, which vanished in following elections.