Affiliation:
1. School of Business East China University of Science and Technology Shanghai China
2. School of Management Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan China
3. Research Institute of Digital Governance and Management Decision Innovation Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan China
4. Research Center for Econophysics East China University of Science and Technology Shanghai China
5. School of Mathematics East China University of Science and Technology Shanghai China
Abstract
ABSTRACTWith economic globalization and the financialization of agricultural products continuing to advance, the interconnections between different agricultural futures have become closer. We utilize a TVP‐VAR‐DY model combined with the quantile method to measure the risk spillover between 11 agricultural futures in the United States and China from July 9, 2014, to December 31, 2022. We obtain several findings. First, CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are identified as the primary risk transmitters, with DCE corn and soybean as the main risk receivers. Second, sudden events or increased economic uncertainty can enlarge the overall risk spillovers. Third, there is an aggregation of risk spillovers amongst agricultural futures based on the dynamic directional spillovers. Lastly, the central agricultural futures under the conditional mean are CBOT corn and soybean, while CZCE hard wheat and long‐grained rice are the two risk‐spillover centers in extreme cases, as per the results of the spillover network and minimum spanning tree.