Learning to balance wheat G × E × M interactions in response to a changing climate—The case for ultra‐early planting systems

Abstract

AbstractReported global reductions in cereal grain yields due to increased global average temperature combined with increasing global populations peaking near 2050 create an immediate need to increase cereal grain yield potential and reduce the yield gap between realized on‐farm grain yield and potential yield. The development of an ultra‐early planting system for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) on the northern Great Plains can increase the resiliency of current growing systems to a changing climate. This was achieved through the development of a unique set of practices designed to successfully shift current wheat production systems to ultra‐early growing systems. Ultra‐early‐planted wheat‐growing systems on the northern Great Plains will provide immediate benefits to the adopting producer in the form of increased grain yield and increased grain yield stability relative to current practices. As global average temperatures warm, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase, the northern Great Plains region is in a unique position to potentially realize grain yield increases rather than temperature‐driven grain yield decreases. Shifting planting earlier and taking advantage of increased growing degree day accumulation and water use efficiencies while avoiding higher temperatures during sensitive physiological periods are tactics implemented in ultra‐early growing systems that will increase in importance and relevance in the next three decades as average daily temperatures increase.