Making decisions under demographic, management, and monitoring uncertainty with value of information

Abstract

AbstractLearning and resolving uncertainty should be important components of management decisions, but not every type of uncertainty is equally important to resolve. For rare, threatened, and endangered species, information may be limited and there is often great urgency to halt potential population declines. Therefore, the most important uncertainties are those that would lead to different decisions intended to improve outcomes for species of interest. The New England cottontail (Sylvilagus transitionalis) is an endemic species to the northeastern United States and is listed as a species of special concern, threatened, or endangered in all states in its current range. States within the historical New England cottontail range have made substantial investments in habitat management, captive breeding, and research, but considerable demographic, management, and monitoring uncertainties remain. Connecticut is the geographic core of the current range of the species and therefore has been the focus of many management efforts, including improving habitat, creating new habitat patches, removing eastern cottontails (Sylvilagus floridanus), and releasing captive‐bred New England cottontails. We used a value of information analysis to identify the optimal management decision given current uncertainty and to evaluate how sources of uncertainty might lead to changes in management decisions. Given the current understanding of the New England cottontail in Connecticut, we identified the optimal management decision as improving existing habitat patches without monitoring for the species and managers could expect a 3.4% increase in populations if decision‐making uncertainty could be fully resolved. Multiple sources of uncertainty influenced results, but variation in New England cottontail density and the response of the species to the removal of eastern cottontails were most likely to result in changes to management decisions. At lower New England cottontail densities, releasing captive‐bred individuals competed with improving habitat as the optimal management action. Accounting for the value of information benefits New England cottontail management by guiding research efforts toward information that is most beneficial for decision‐makers and providing insights into parameter thresholds that would lead to changes in management decisions.