Modeled health economic and equity impact on dental caries and health outcomes from a 20% sugar sweetened beverages tax in Australia

Abstract

AbstractDental caries is the most prevalent oral disease across the life course. This study modeled the population health and economic impact of a 20% sugar sweetened beverages tax (SSB) for preventing dental caries compared to no intervention (societal and healthcare perspective). A cost‐effectiveness analysis according to quintiles of area‐level socioeconomic disadvantage was performed for the 2020 Australian population (0–100 years old) using a closed cohort Markov model. A qualitative assessment of implementation considerations (e.g., acceptability, equity, sustainability) was undertaken. Health outcomes were modeled as decayed teeth prevented and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The 10‐year and lifetime scenarios were modeled with probabilistic sensitivity analysis (Monte Carlo simulation, 2000 cycles). The 10‐year scenario from a societal perspective yielded cost‐savings of AUD$63.5M, healthcare cost‐savings of AUD$42.2M, 510,977 decayed teeth averted and 98.1 DALYs averted. The lifetime scenario resulted in societal cost savings of AUD$176.6M, healthcare cost‐savings of AUD$122.5M, 1,309,211 decayed teeth averted and 254.9 DALYs averted. Modeling indicated 71.5% and 74.5% cost‐effectiveness for the 10‐year and lifetime scenarios, respectively. A three‐fold health benefit for the least advantaged was found compared to the most advantaged. A 20% SSB tax in Australia is cost‐effective and promotes health equity.