Affiliation:
1. Department of Geography George Washington University Washington D.C. USA
2. Living Earth Collaborative Washington University St. Louis MO USA
3. Department of Biological Sciences Wichita State University Wichita KS USA
4. Department of Biology University of Miami Coral Gables FL USA
5. Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development Missouri Botanical Garden St. Louis MO USA
Abstract
AbstractPremiseAlthough changes in plant phenology are largely attributed to changes in climate, the roles of other factors such as genetic constraints, competition, and self‐compatibility are underexplored.MethodsWe compiled >900 herbarium records spanning 117 years for all eight nominal species of the winter‐annual genus Leavenworthia (Brassicaceae). We used linear regression to determine the rate of phenological change across years and phenological sensitivity to climate. Using a variance partitioning analysis, we assessed the relative influence of climatic and nonclimatic factors (self‐compatibility, range overlap, latitude, and year) on Leavenworthia reproductive phenology.ResultsFlowering advanced by ~2.0 days and fruiting by ~1.3 days per decade. For every 1°C increase in spring temperature, flowering advanced ~2.3 days and fruiting ~3.3 days. For every 100 mm decrease in spring precipitation, each advanced ~6–7 days. The best models explained 35.4% of flowering variance and 33.9% of fruiting. Spring precipitation accounted for 51.3% of explained variance in flowering date and 44.6% in fruiting. Mean spring temperature accounted for 10.6% and 19.3%, respectively. Year accounted for 16.6% of flowering variance and 5.4% of fruiting, and latitude for 2.3% and 15.1%, respectively. Nonclimatic variables combined accounted for <11% of the variance across phenophases.ConclusionsSpring precipitation and other climate‐related factors were dominant predictors of phenological variance. Our results emphasize the strong effect of precipitation on phenology, especially in the moisture‐limited habitats preferred by Leavenworthia. Among the many factors that determine phenology, climate is the dominant influence, indicating that the effects of climate change on phenology are expected to increase.
Subject
Plant Science,Genetics,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Cited by
2 articles.
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