A Non‐Linear Model for Multiple Alcohol Intakes and Optimal Designs Strategies

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study addresses the complex dynamics of alcohol elimination in the human body, very important in forensic and healthcare areas. Existing models often oversimplify with the assumption of linear elimination kinetics, limiting practical application. This study presents a novel non‐linear model for estimating blood alcohol concentration after multiple intakes. Initially developed for two different alcohol incorporations, it can be straightforwardly extended to the case of more intakes. Emphasising the significance of accurate parameter estimation, the research underscores the importance of precise experimental design, utilising optimal experimental design (OED) methodologies. Sensitivity analysis of model coefficients and the determination of D‐optimal designs, considering correlation structures among observations, reveal a strong linear relationship between support points. This relationship can be used to obtain nearly optimal designs that are highly efficient and much easier to compute.