The simultaneous prediction of yield and maturity date for wheat–maize by combining satellite images with crop model

Abstract

AbstractBACKGROUNDThe simultaneous prediction of yield and maturity date has an important impact on ensuring food security. However, few studies have focused on simultaneous prediction of yield and maturity date for wheat–maize in the North China Plain (NCP). In this study, we developed the prediction model of maturity date and yield (PMMY) for wheat–maize using multi‐source satellite images, an Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model and a random forest (RF) algorithm.RESULTSThe results showed that the PMMY model using peak leaf area index (LAI) and accumulated evapotranspiration (ET) has the optimal performance in the prediction of maturity date and yield. The accuracy of the PMMY model using peak LAI and accumulated ET was higher than that of the PMMY model using only peak LAI or accumulated ET. In a single year, the PMMY model had good performance in the prediction of maturity date and yield. The latitude variation in spatial distribution of maturity date for WM was obvious. The spatial heterogeneity for yield of wheat–maize was not prominent. Compared with 2001–2005, the maturity date of the two crops in 2016–2020 advanced 1–2 days, while yield increased 659–706 kg ha−1. The increase in minimum temperature was the main meteorological factor for advance in the maturity date for wheat–maize. Precipitation was mainly positively correlated with maize yield, while the increase in minimum temperature and solar radiation was crucial to the increase in yield.CONCLUSIONThe simultaneous prediction of yield and maturity can be used to guide agricultural production and ensure food security. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.