Data fusion for predicting long‐term program impacts

Abstract

Policymakers often require information on programs' long‐term impacts that is not available when decisions are made. For example, while rigorous evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment (OHIE) shows that having health insurance influences short‐term health and financial measures, the impact on long‐term outcomes, such as mortality, will not be known for many years following the program's implementation. We demonstrate how data fusion methods may be used address the problem of missing final outcomes and predict long‐run impacts of interventions before the requisite data are available. We implement this method by concatenating data on an intervention (such as the OHIE) with auxiliary long‐term data and then imputing missing long‐term outcomes using short‐term surrogate outcomes while approximating uncertainty with replication methods. We use simulations to examine the performance of the methodology and apply the method in a case study. Specifically, we fuse data on the OHIE with data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study and estimate that being eligible to apply for subsidized health insurance will lead to a statistically significant improvement in long‐term mortality.