Prediction of daily fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration in Aksaray, Turkey: Temporal variation, meteorological dependence, and employing artificial neural network

Abstract

AbstractThis study analyzed the temporal variation and prediction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in Aksaray, Turkey, a city in Central Anatolia. The relationship between PM2.5 and meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction was investigated. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict PM2.5 levels based on meteorological data and air pollutant information. Seasonal and diurnal patterns of PM2.5 concentrations were observed, with higher values recorded during the winter and lower values during the summer. Additionally, higher levels were observed in the morning and evening, while lower levels were recorded in the afternoon. The variations in meteorological parameters, especially temperature and wind speed, significantly influenced PM2.5 levels. To predict hourly PM2.5 concentrations, single and multiple data imputation techniques were employed in combination with resilient back‐propagation (RPROP‐ANN). The neural network was applied, consisting of one input layer comprising 11 parameters, one hidden layer with 20 neurons, and an output layer. The results indicate that the best forecasting performance for PM2.5 was demonstrated by the combination of the missForest imputation technique with the RPROP neural network, as assessed by the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The proposed model is characterized by a low RMSE of 5.94 and a high R2 value of 0.88, demonstrating exceptional predictive performance in air quality.