A critical assessment of changes in climate predicted by four GCMs under different RCP scenarios in Punjab (India)

Abstract

The projected temperature, rainfall and solar radiation derived from four General Circulation Models namely CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, FIO-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR and Ensemble model under four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios were analyzed on annual basis for four agro-climatic zones of Punjab. The inherent bias in the simulated data was corrected by the difference method at monthly scale for maximum temperature, rainfall and at daily scale for solar radiation. In general, the temperatures are expected to increase linearly in future while the solar radiation and rainfall would decrease under the four RCP scenarios. Amongst the four models, the maximum temperature is predicted to increase from the baseline during mid/end century by 0.5 to 1.2/1.6 to 2.6 °C and minimum temperature is predicted to increase from the baseline during mid/end century by 1.1 to 2.6/2.7 to 4.1 °C by CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, respectively followed by IPSL-CM5A-MR model in decreasing order. The solar radiation predicted by four models is predicted to decrease from baseline during mid/end century by 0.5 to 1.1/0.3 to 1.2 W/m2 and rainfall during mid/end century by 96 to 558/59 to 530 mm by CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, respectively followed by FIO-ESM model in decreasing order. The highest/lowest maximum temperatures were predicted by four models under four RCP scenarios were 32.9 °C (Bathinda)/30.5 °C (Ludhiana), highest/lowest minimum temperature were 20.8 °C (Patiala)/17.9 °C (Amritsar), highest/lowest solar radiation 15.9 W/m2 (Amritsar and Bathinda)/14.9 W/m2 (Amritsar) and highest/lowest rainfall 659 mm (Amritsar)/346 mm (Abohar), respectively.