Modeling Short-term Yield Changes in Sweet Pepper Based on Dry Matter Production and Fruit Growth

Abstract

Large fluctuations in fruit set and fresh yield are issues associated with the production of sweet pepper. Fluctuations in fresh yield (i.e., flush) result in improper labor distributions and price fluctuations for growers. Modeling the fruit set is a promising way to improve the profits of growers and allow the arrangement of labor distribution and logistics. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model for predicting the short-term yield changes of sweet pepper by integrating two sub-models: one model for predicting the production of total dry matter and one model for predicting the individual fruit growth. We hydroponically grew four sweet pepper cultivars (Artega, Nagano, Nesbitt, and Trirosso) in a greenhouse to investigate the accuracy of the proposed model. Comparisons between observed and predicted fresh yields showed that the peaks and troughs of fresh yields were accurately predicted, regardless of cultivar differences. The average root mean square error between them was within the range of 0.24 to 0.39 t⋅ha−1⋅d−1. Therefore, growers will be able to predict short-term yield changes of sweet pepper by obtaining coefficients for predicting the production of total dry matter and fruit growth curve of the cultivar scheduled to be cultivated.