ASSESSING LOGISTIC FACTORS AND FORECASTING THEIR IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE EXAMPLE OF KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

This article assesses the impact of the development of logistics systems (LS) on the efficiency of the economy. A multi-level methodology for assessing the impact of LS on the economy consisting of six stages (transport, investment, economic, information, material and technical, labor and infrastructure) is proposed using a dynamic structural model for a group of macroeconomic logistical factors for the period 2009–2020 for the republic and the regions of Kazakhstan. Their close relationship with economic growth has been established. Based on the results of factorial and index methods of analysis, mechanisms of differentiation in the management of the regional economy are proposed based on the level of development of logistics and their impact on the growth of the regional economy. Four groups of regions are identified according to the level of development of logistics and their impact on the economy, and directions for their further development are proposed. The forecast is based on the studied factors up to 2030. In particular, it has been established that for the long-term development of the economy of Kazakhstan, the development of agriculture and industry, investment in fixed assets, freight turnover, the availability of vehicles, wages, communication services, and the density of the railway network are important factors.