Economic policy and GDP dynamics: Evidence from the USA

Abstract

Subject. The article considers cyclical changes of economic policy by U.S. presidents, based on either the neoclassicism concept or the postulates of neomercantilism. This struggle has become especially acute and dramatic for the economies of the rest of the world since 2016, after the election of D. Trump as President of the United States. Objectives. The aim is to evaluate the impact of the economic policy pursued by U.S. presidents according to the methods of various economic schools, on the dynamics of GDP. Methods. The study rests on classification of methods for the American economy over the past hundred years and their comparison with statistical data on U.S. GDP growth rates for this period, calculation of correlation coefficient between these economic indicators. Results. The correlation coefficient between the economic policy pursued by U.S. presidents and the GDP growth rate was equal to 0.87. This is indicative of significant influence of economic policy on the U.S. GDP dynamics. The highest rates of economic growth were observed, when the U.S. economy was managed according to mercantilist principles. Conclusions. The probability of a new return to the mercantilist methods of managing the U.S. economy and final rejection of globalization policy is quite high. The theoretical understanding of this process will help make adequate decisions in the practice of interstate relations, taking into account the uneven economic growth rates of developed liberal and developing mercantilist countries.