Leakage Prediction in Machine Learning Models When Using Data from Sports Wearable Sensors

Abstract

One of the major problems in machine learning is data leakage, which can be directly related to adversarial type attacks, raising serious concerns about the validity and reliability of artificial intelligence. Data leakage occurs when the independent variables used to teach the machine learning algorithm include either the dependent variable itself or a variable that contains clear information that the model is trying to predict. This data leakage results in unreliable and poor predictive results after the development and use of the model. It prevents the model from generalizing, which is required in a machine learning problem and thus causes false assumptions about its performance. To have a solid and generalized forecasting model, which will be able to produce remarkable forecasting results, we must pay great attention to detecting and preventing data leakage. This study presents an innovative system of leakage prediction in machine learning models, which is based on Bayesian inference to produce a thorough approach to calculating the reverse probability of unseen variables in order to make statistical conclusions about the relevant correlated variables and to calculate accordingly a lower limit on the marginal likelihood of the observed variables being derived from some coupling method. The main notion is that a higher marginal probability for a set of variables suggests a better fit of the data and thus a greater likelihood of a data leak in the model. The methodology is evaluated in a specialized dataset derived from sports wearable sensors.