Prediction of Tropical Cyclones’ Characteristic Factors on Hainan Island Using Data Mining Technology

Author:

Zhou Ruixu1,Gao Wensheng1,Zhang Bowen2,Fu Xianggan3,Chen Qinzhu3,Huang Song3,Liang Yafeng3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

2. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China

3. Hainan Power Grid Corporation, Haikou, Hainan 570203, China

Abstract

A new methodology combining data mining technology with statistical methods is proposed for the prediction of tropical cyclones’ characteristic factors which contain latitude, longitude, the lowest center pressure, and wind speed. In the proposed method, the best track datasets in the years 1949~2012 are used for prediction. Using the method, effective criterions are formed to judge whether tropical cyclones land on Hainan Island or not. The highest probability of accurate judgment can reach above 79%. With regard to TCs which are judged to land on Hainan Island, related prediction equations are established to effectively predict their characteristic factors. Results show that the average distance error is improved compared with the National Meteorological Centre of China.

Funder

Integrated Demonstration Project of Regional Smart Grid

Publisher

Hindawi Limited

Subject

Atmospheric Science,Pollution,Geophysics

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