CCCAP-Pre: Predicting Price of Artwork Based on GM(1, N, x(1)) Model and Cultural Services

Abstract

Predicting price of contemporary ceramic artworks is an important and difficult problem, particularly when every object is unique and potential bidder’s tastes may exhibit substantial variation. In recent years, China’s ceramic art market has shown a considerable developing trend, but at the same time, there are also problems that severely restrict its development, such as the chaotic price system. As cultural products, contemporary ceramic artworks have the value of cultural services. Unfortunately, the existing price evaluation models all ignore cultural services. By introducing the “cultural services” and “gray model GM(1, N, x(1)),” a new predictor, called CCCAP-Pre, has been developed to predict prices of contemporary ceramic artworks. As demonstrated, the minimum error, the maximum error, and the average relative error of CCCAP-Pre were 0.02%, 6.19%, and 1.40% on ceramic sculpture artworks and 0.06%, 9.11%, and 3.63% on ceramic painting artworks, respectively. It will provide a reference for the benign development of ceramic art market.