Quantifying Information Flows among Developed and Emerging Equity Markets

Abstract

We rely on daily changes in implied volatility indices for the US stock market (VIX), developed markets excluding the US (VXEFA), stock markets in Brazil (VXEWZ), Russia (RVI), India (NIFVIX), China (VXFXI), and the overall emerging market volatility index (VXEEM) to examine the degree of information flows among the markets in the coronavirus pandemic. The study also employs the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) to decompose the data into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Subsequently, we cluster the IMFs based on their level of frequencies into short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. The analysis draws on the concept of Rényi transfer entropy (RTE) to enable an assessment of linear as well as non-linear and tail-dependence in the markets. The study reports significant information flows from BRIC volatility indices to the overall emerging market volatility index in the short-and medium-terms and vice versa. We also document a mixture of bi-directional and uni-directional flow of high risk information and low risk information emanating from emerging equity markets and from the developed markets. We find that the transmission of high risk information is largely dominated by the developed markets (VIX and VXEFA). In the midst of high degree of contagion, our findings reveal that investors can find minimal benefits by shielding against adverse shocks from the developed markets with a combination of stocks from India and other equities in the emerging markets in the short-term, within 1–15 days. For as low as 1–5 days, the empirical evidence indicates that a portfolio consisting of stocks from Russia and Brazil also offer immunity to shocks from the VXEFA. Our study makes an important empirical contribution to the study of market integration and contagion among emerging markets and developed markets in crisis periods.