An Explainable Statistical Method for Seizure Prediction Using Brain Functional Connectivity from EEG

Abstract

Background. Epilepsy is a group of chronic neurological disorders characterized by recurrent and abrupt seizures. The accurate prediction of seizures can reduce the burdens of this disorder. Now, existing studies use brain network features to classify patients’ preictal or interictal states, enabling seizure prediction. However, most predicting methods are based on deep learning techniques, which have weak interpretability and high computational complexity. To address these issues, in this study, we proposed a novel two-stage statistical method that is interpretable and easy to compute. Methods. We used two datasets to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, including the well-known public dataset CHB-MIT. In the first stage, we estimated the dynamic brain functional connectivity network for each epoch. Then, in the second stage, we used the derived network predictor for seizure prediction. Results. We illustrated the results of our method in seizure prediction in two datasets separately. For the FH-PKU dataset, our approach achieved an AUC value of 0.963, a prediction sensitivity of 93.1%, and a false discovery rate of 7.7%. For the CHB-MIT dataset, our approach achieved an AUC value of 0.940, a prediction sensitivity of 93.0%, and a false discovery rate of 11.1%, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods. Significance. This study proposed an explainable statistical method, which can estimate the brain network using the scalp EEG method and use the net-work predictor to predict epileptic seizures. Availability and Implementation. R Source code is available at https://github.com/HaoChen1994/Seizure-Prediction.