Time Series Analyses and Modeling of Environmental Systems: Case Studies in Kuwait

Abstract

Background: Time series is a sequence of measurements made at regular time intervals. Tremendous work has been done on pipe break investigation and maintenance, using different models. However, the authors have not found any research work on pipe failures in water distribution networks using time series. Objective: The principal objective of this paper was to investigate the applications of time series analysis in modeling man-made (pipe breaks) and natural (rainfall) environmental systems. Methods: This objective was satisfied by employing the Time-Domain (Box-Jenkins) approach to assess two case studies in Kuwait of a water distribution network (pipe failures), and from rainfall rates measurement of a solid waste disposal site, respectively. The statistical analysis of these data was conducted with the aid of the BMDP and SAS computer software packages and by the use of the P2T programming procedure for the Box-Jenkins method. Results: The results showed a significant correlation between the data and the time series models provides good estimates of pipe reliability and rainfall measurements. Conclusion: Based on the significant results, time series analyses could and should be useful by water authorities in planning pipe maintenance and inspection. Moreover, it is recommended and it would be very useful to conduct similar studies on pipes carrying other fluids such as gas, air and oil.