Robust Location Prediction over Sparse Spatiotemporal Trajectory Data: Flashback to the Right Moment!

Abstract

As a fundamental problem in human mobility modeling, location prediction forecasts a user’s next location based on historical user mobility trajectories. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been widely used to capture sequential patterns of user visited locations for solving location prediction problems. Due to the sparse nature of real-world user mobility trajectories, existing techniques strive to improve RNNs by incorporating spatiotemporal contexts into the recurrent hidden state passing process of RNNs using context-parameterized transition matrices or gates. However, such a scheme mismatches universal spatiotemporal mobility laws and thus cannot fully benefit from rich spatiotemporal contexts encoded in user mobility trajectories. Against this background, we propose Flashback++, a general RNN architecture designed for modeling sparse user mobility trajectories. It not only leverages rich spatiotemporal contexts to search past hidden states with high predictive power but also learns to optimally combine them via a hidden state re-weighting mechanism, which significantly improves the robustness of the models against different settings and datasets. Our extensive evaluation compares Flashback++ against a sizable collection of state-of-the-art techniques on two real-world location-based social networks datasets and one on-campus mobility dataset. Results show that Flashback++ not only consistently and significantly outperforms all baseline techniques by 20.56% to 44.36% but also achieves better robustness of location prediction performance against different model settings (different RNN architectures and numbers of hidden states to flash back), different levels of trajectory sparsity, and different train-testing splitting ratios than baselines, yielding an improvement of 31.05% to 94.60%.