Innovative Approaches to Model and Forecast of Azerbaijan’s Economic Growth

Abstract

One of the indicators of the country's economic growth is the gross domestic product, and one of the factors of economic growth is capital. The main criteria and source of economic development is economic growth. Economic growth is a sustainable increasing tendency of the main indicators of national theory production. Furthermore, absolute value and growth per capita are also considered. The objective and subjective aspects and components of the processes of formation and development of economic growth are investigated. The essence and characteristics of objective and subjective factors of the country's economic growth are given. In economics and statistics, various indicators are used to measure the volume of national production. The most important of these is the gross domestic product. Gross domestic product is expressed by the monetary unit of the final products and services produced in the economy. The fact that gross domestic product comprises final products and services produced within a particular country should be considered. Moreover, the most important is the diversification of sources of gross domestic product growth and ensuring the multiplier influence of the interconnected sectors of the country's economy to increase gross domestic product growth. In this work, the dynamic model that demonstrates the dependence of gross domestic product on investments in the case of the Azerbaijan economy is created. Based on this model, it is possible to more optimally plan and predict promising sources and strategic directions for developing the national economy and ensuring its intensive growth. This approach provides an opportunity for the country's strategic planning of the gross domestic product. In this work, to achieve the desired level of gross domestic product, the volume of investment is used as the independent variable in the dynamic model. However, as indicated above, many other factors affect the amount of investment in gross domestic product. Nevertheless, the dynamic model of the optimal gross domestic product trajectory yielded good results. In modern conditions, optimal and effective modelling is essential to ensure the dynamic development of the country's economies and gross domestic product based on global changes and factors. Similar approaches create opportunities to strengthen the immunity of the national economy to counter global impacts and risks. Further research will consider the other most influential factors on gross domestic product. In this case, a dynamic model of the optimal trajectory of the gross domestic product will give even more adequate results.