VIBRATION PREDICTION BASED ON PRESENTING IT PREPARATION PERIOD AS A BLUE-UP PROCESS

Abstract

The method of forecasting vibrations is considered. The technique is based on the assumption that the vibration preparation process can be attributed to the processes developing in the blowup mode. The properties of the technique are demonstrated on the example of a retro forecast of vibrations that took place in Turkey on February 6 and 20, 2023. The results of testing the methodology confirmed the assumptions underlying it. Approbation of the methodology made it possible to predict the time of exacerbation of the seismic situation in the region of the globe, which is very remote from the control point of the initial seismic information for forecasting.