For Past, Present, and Future Ecological Niche Models, Does Türkiye Serve as a Climate Change Shelter for <i>Lacerta diplochondrodes</i>?

Abstract

Climate change is a serious threat to biodiversity. In the future, this threat will also determine the distribution of the species. The ecological niche modelling studies enable us to predict suitable habitat areas for each species according to the interaction of climate and taxa in the past, present, and future. The aim of this study was to investigate the possible effects of climate change on the Lacerta diplochondrodes species, which is distributed in Europe and Türkiye. Applying the ecological niche model, suitable habitats of the species were projected in the Last Glacial Maximum, current and future. The future climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, we used BCC-CSM1-1, GISS-E2-R, HADGEM2-AO, MIROC5, and MPI-ESM-LR with rcp2.6 and rcp8.5. The suitability of habitats was projected to decrease by 10.56 – 13.53% depending on the scenario with rcp2.6 and by 21.83 – 35.99% depending on rcp8.5 in the future. In future climate scenarios, it is estimated that suitable habitat areas will decrease in Europe, while suitable habitat areas in Türkiye will remain largely unchanged. As part of the conservation efforts of this species in Europe, we recommend that monitoring and conservation studies be undertaken as soon as possible. In Türkiye, it is recommended that the region from the south of Central Anatolia towards the Aegean region should be studied primarily to minimize habitat loss due to climate change in the future.