System of assessment and forecasting of regional industrial systems development prospects taking into account the innovation-technological factor

Abstract

The published scientific article is devoted to the need for integrated and systemic strategies to promote the development of the regional industrial complex, which is the most important aspect of innovative strategies of production units and allows regions to increase their production competitiveness and attract additional investment. The article defines the concept of forecasting in scientific research and regulatory documents; presents a system of indicators for assessing the forecasting of regional economic systems within the Russian Federation; highlights the elements of the strategy of socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation; emphasizes that regional forecasting includes economic, demographic and social forecasts of regional development; presents a specific classification of forecasts for the studied time period; a distinction is made between search and regulatory forecasts: search forecasts are based on the analysis of the prevailing trends of economic growth, and regulatory forecasts are based on the desired future state of the region, corresponding to the objectives of the study; it is argued that the socio-economic development and industrial complex of the region are significantly influenced by innovation and technological factors; to assess the innovation and technological factor in the article it is proposed to carry out mathematical modeling of innovation processes within the framework of the regional industrial complex; the stages of modeling these innovative processes are outlined; the use of a matrix of correlation indicators for the selection of factors is justified, which allows to systematically assess the relationship between various variables, helping to identify factors affecting regional development.