Development and evaluation of the channel routing model and parameters within the National Water Model

Abstract

AbstractThe National Water Model (NWM) was deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to simulate operational forecasts of hydrologic states across the continental United States. This paper describes the geospatial river network (“hydro‐fabric”), physics, and parameters of the NWM, elucidating the challenges of extrapolating parameters a large scale with limited observations. A set of regression‐based channel geometry parameters are evaluated for a subset of the 2.7 million NWM reaches, and the riverine compound channel scheme is described. Based on the results from regional streamflow experiments within the broader NWM context, the compound channel reduced the root mean squared error by 2% and improved median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency by 16% compared with a non‐compound formulation. Peak event analysis from 910 peak flow events across 26 basins matched from the US Flash Flood Observation Database revealed that the mean timing error is 3 h lagged behind the observations. The routing time step was also tested, for 5‐min (default, operational setting) and 1‐h increments. The model was computationally stable and able to convey the flood peaks, although the hydrograph shape and peak timing were altered.